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This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Still, the retreat was necessary in the wargame to ensure those forces were not encircled from the north and by forces moving out of Crimea. . Follow James Rogers on Twitter@jamesjrogers. Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin gets a sense that NATO is destined to intervene on Ukraines side. Kazianis is the director of defence studies at the Center for the National Interest, a think tank based in Washington DC. So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflicts first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. All trademarks are property of their respective owners in the US and other countries. File photo - Infantrymen of the 3rd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, fire M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 vehicles on Tapa Army Base, Nov. 13, 2015. I'm a huge history/geography fan, so if you're interested in those things aswell, this channel may be perfect for you! The mapping scenario focuses on geography and the capturing of major cities, making it different from my usual videos. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive. What Ukraine must figure out now is Russias likely next moves, as Putin concludes that his invasion is not going to be a modern day Anschluss. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. Much of the Ukrainian air force was destroyed on the ground as a result of Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missile strikes, special operations-enabled targeting and direct action, and air strikes. This four-minute audio-visual piece is based on independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets. Gotta love @BryanAlexanders ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! In the actual conflict, Russias attempt at a rapid move to Kyiv aiming to decapitate the government appears to have backfired. They added it was a limited response and did not say what type of target the US military had simulated attacking. Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXy Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.c. Moscow says Ukrainian saboteurs opened fire against civilians on Russian territory, a claim Kyiv denies. In the game, moving away from the line of control proved difficult, as retreats under pressure always are. In this video I play Eastern Theatre War Simulator a Roblox game where it is Russia Vs Ukraine. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members . Blue denotes U.S. forces in the simulations. Note the chained sequences of effects, along with rating them for relative likelihood of occurring: A Bloomberg column considers three scenarios for how western economic sanctions could impact Russia and the world. Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. Anyway, the scenario is relitively simple, but did take some time to make. "It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict," Glaser said. The meeting comes as the US annouced a new military aid including tactical bridges to move tanks and armoured vehicles. Thus, the Russian players primary focus, during the first few days of the campaign, was aimed at gaining freedom of maneuver in the skies air dominance along with destroying Ukraines coastal defense systems. It uses extensive data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict from tactical, to strategic to city-targeting phases. When the game ended, Ukraines forces in the north were under heavy pressure (see map below) but aside from one brigade were largely unengaged and remained astride the approaches to Kyiv. Are there other scenarios or simulations for this topic which you recommend? James Lacey, Ph.D., holds the Horner Chair of War Studies at Marine Corps University. In 2019, Harry J. Kazianis participated in an American simulation of a war between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. In an ironic reversal of the situation during the Cold War, NATO is now the dominant conventional coalition in Europe, while Russia is a weak state with a large but less powerful army. On Thursday (March 10), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he does not believe that the conflict in Ukraine would lead to a nuclear war. AIR FORCE FAST-TRACKS NEW NUCLEAR MISSILES. (thanks to Brian Tain for this post and for answering my question, as well as to Lennaert van Mierlo and the Association of Professional Futurists, especially Josh Calder and Stephen Aguilar-Milan, plus Viktor Motti. Actual events also highlight the importance of the human domain and how difficult it is to effectively model or assess prior to conflict. The U.S., he explains, should not assume air and maritime superiority over the battlespace. This ends up being the last straw for NATO, which then decides direct intervention in Ukraine is necessary to push back against Russian aggression, Kazianis wrote. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. In one a Russian invasion of Ukraine develops into war with NATO, and Moscows forces are ultimately defeated. Russia using claims about Ukrainian nuclear weapons to justify invasion, UK says. Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? American space assets could also face attacks, while U.S. command and control systems could be targeted by electromagnetic and cyber weapons. One wonders if the Russian failure to employ their massive fires capacity to deliberately shape the battlefield over an extended period before the ground advance began will be marked by historians as a blunder. Also, as of yet, the Russians have not forced the Dnieper in the south, and the forces in the east, pushing forward north of Kharkiv, are still some distances from the Dnieper crossings. In fact, news reports indicate that is already happening. First, the amount of fires employed in the wargame was only a fraction of what the Russians had available. Going into the fifth day of the war, Ukraines air defenses are still functioning, even if at a reduced level of effectiveness. While many observers were surprised by the Russian approach, it was the course of action chosen by the Russian player in the game. Kyivs forces try to help residents flee as Russian fighters press to capture city in eastern Ukraine. He explained: If youre trying to deter an adversary, what you might do is reveal the fact that youve been simulating you fight them because that is part of your deterrence. If you enjoyed the video, drop a LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for more. On the fifth day of the war, we find a similar situation, with the Russian forces having flowed out of the Crimea into close to the same positions they occupied in the wargame, and with the same choices before them as we found in the wargame. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group, says the city in Donetsk is almost completely surrounded. On the third day of the wargame, the Russians launched a combined ground, air, and amphibious assault on the Ukrainian defenses around Kherson accelerated in execution due to the short time available to play the game. By the time the wargame ended, the overall situation appeared very much as it does on the ground in Ukraine, with only two major deviations. By still being able to communicate to the outside world, Zelenskyy has single-handedly changed the strategic balance rallied Western support beyond what anyone could have foreseen, to include anti-tank weapon support from both Germany and Sweden. A Rout for Russia's Tanks: A three-week fight near the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine produced the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians. Looking for Matt, a longshoreman in Delta. One must be very careful when using a wargame for predictive purposes. Moreover, at the cost of 30 to 40 aircraft, in the wargame, the Russians gained air dominance, as the Ukrainian air force was virtually wiped out by day three of the wargame. A screenshot taken from the Plan A nuclear war simulation. "Within 48 to 72 hours, Russian forces . Moreover, for all the heated talk about hybrid and grey zone warfare, this is a fight of blood and iron, in which Otto von Bismarck would have felt at home, something wargames are spectacularly good at simulating. But before that decision was announced, Russian intelligence sees missile and troop movements that indicate an impending NATO attack and decide to strike first with tactical nuclear weapons. A year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, the repercussions . Josh Calder shared this infographic with me, developing a sequence of events for three different ways forward: diplomacy, irregular war, and a conventional attack. The intent of these orders was to lure Russias 8th Combined Arms Army into expending vast amounts of resources hitting empty positions, as the Ukrainians would have already fallen back to the Dnieper River. The public announcement of these exercises might be for one of two reasons, security expert Dr David Blagden told Express.co.uk. Ukraine and several other countries . In diverging from Western interpretations of the Russian way of war, the wargame closely mimicked what we mostly saw in the first few days of Russias actual military operations. Get a daily look at whats developing in science and technology throughout the world. As the wargame ended, the Ukrainians were under pressure in the north, with Russian forces closing in on the eastern approaches to Kyiv and the Dnieper River, while also beginning to cross the border from Belarus into the northwest through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Let us know in the comments section here. That's not true. The Federation of American Scientists says online that these countries possessed roughly 12,700 warheads as of early-2022. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. On the other side of the world, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while a massive military gamble for China, would also pose a huge challenge for U.S. forces in the area, according to Ochmanek. Feb 25, 2023 2:35 PM EST. 69% 18. A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours . As the Ukrainian government made a political calculation not to mobilize or move units into defensive positions, this map likely represents where most Ukrainian military formations started the war. Only to the north of Kyiv have the Russians made dangerous gains. Putin announced what he called a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is in contrast with nearly every expert and pundit on the airwaves, who are expressing astonishment at how this conflict is unfolding. If the Russians bypassed the city, the Ukrainians could have looked for counterattack opportunities after Russias leading combat formations had gone past. For their part, the U.S., EU and NATO have warned Russia that . The preceding scenarios depict futures as narratives. VAT included in all prices where applicable. You can use this widget-maker to generate a bit of HTML that can be embedded in your website to easily allow customers to purchase this game on Steam. Still, one hopes that Western pressure, and the infliction of unacceptable losses upon Putins legions will create an opening for a negotiated peace. Russia and China have amassed large inventories of precision-guided cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach hundreds of miles and strike military targets, the researcher said. At the time the game ended, this major ground fight all along the river in the vicinity of Kherson and along the shores of the Black Sea just to the south and west of Kherson was still developing. "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. Russia has more than 15,857 armored fighting . When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! Based on a variety of wargame simulations, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies. This game is fun, has some glitches but overall is a good rea. NATO then retaliates with a single, tactical, nuclear air strike. Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes . There were likely some residual survivors, but Ukraines ability to operate at the squadron level was neutralized. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). Its putting more combat power back into Europe, and putting it on Europes eastern flank, he said. The researcher notes that the key domains of warfare are contested from the start of hostilities. Moreover, Russias capacity to concentrate vast ground fires artillery, rockets, and missiles still allows the Russian army to overwhelm the Ukrainians at any chosen point. You are really sick sociopaths to play Gods and engineer futures. Enter up to 375 characters to add a description to your widget: Copy and paste the HTML below into your website to make the above widget appear. Dr Heather Williams, nuclear expert at King's College London, told the BBC: Russia is heavily dependent on Chinese support, but China has a no first use nuclear doctrine. 01:18. Despite a few stark differences, the current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to that simulation. 221 Nassau St., 2nd Fl. Figure 3: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Eastern Front. While it is possible, of course, that a nuclear exchange remains "limited" and the other side backs off or responds with conventional weapons only, there would be huge pressure on decision-makers to "respond in kind" and deny the side to strike first any advantage.
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